The Dispatch

Although some voices predicted that online learning would become the post-COVID study format of choice, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. According to figures from the US National Center for Education, in 2018/19 the proportion of students taking online courses was 35 percent. In 2021, that figure skyrocketed to 59 percent. But that proved to be its high water mark. It has since fallen year-on-year to 53 percent - below 2021’s peak, yet still above pre-pandemic levels.

Those figures are also reflected in student demand for MBA programmes. In 2020, a staggering 84 percent of business schools reported a growth in applications for online programmes. By 2022, that figure had fallen to just 19 percent .

Clearly those lockdown-fuelled levels of interest were never going to be sustained. But as demand starts to level off, distance learning looks to be entering its next phase. Because although interest in the format is higher than pre-pandemic levels, questions around its credibility continue to linger. One global survey from this year found that 44 percent of online students still think an in-person course is more valuable. Another study revealed that the majority of employers believe in-person courses provide employees with better technical, leadership and communication skills. Just 54 percent of those employers valued online and in-person programmes equally.

So how can schools overcome these preconceptions? Sandra Affenito is the chief academic officer and provost of Post University in the US, which has been offering online courses since 1996. Affenito believes robust accreditation is one way of dispelling some of those doubts. "You want to make sure you have that seal of approval from accrediting bodies,” Affenito explains. “It's key - not only for our students, but we also want to make sure what we do is measured. It makes sure our online programmes meet the standard, so that means optimal delivery and rigour."

Distance learning also comes with elements that in-person options can’t match. Nirmal Kumar recently completed an online MBA at Shiv Nadar University in India. “The best part is that you can try implementing small things that you learn during the online programme in your working environment,” he says.

Does he feel he missed out on the in-person experience? “Yeah, kind of. You get to make meaningful connections with others only when you meet them in person. Apart from that, there is no difference academically."

A graduate of the online MBA at Florida Gulf State University, who asks to remain anonymous, agrees. “My current job came through my personal network - I wouldn't have been approached if I didn't have an MBA. No-one has ever asked or inquired if it was online or not.”

For Charles Reid, the value of online study has never been in question. He’s currently pursuing his second online degree: this time, an MBA from Boston University after previously earning a Master’s in Communication. Studying online has meant he has been able to learn without putting his career on hold. “My first one got me a seat at the executive table at my previous company and more than paid for itself,” he reflects. “The one I'm currently earning is plugging in some knowledge gaps about business in general, but I'd say it's worth it so far. Great instructors and program and I don't have to move away from the San Francisco Bay Area, where I've built my career."

Yet there’s no question that the format still has its limitations. That’s certainly what Ron Duerksen has come to realise. He’s the Global Executive Director of the International Masters Program for Managers (IMPM) at Canada’s McGill University, one of the many institutions forced to move teaching online during the pandemic. He has since decided to offer affected students the chance to retake the IMPM in-person.

“While an online senior leadership program can work well, there are some things which are more difficult to replicate online,” he admits. “Given that Cycle 23 participants did not have the chance to visit three countries and three of our academic partners, we agreed to let them attend the current modules in person at no cost. Several participants have taken advantage of this and really enjoyed meeting a new set of participants and immersed themselves into the in-person experience they missed.

“Company visits and interactions and discussions after class with the professor and fellow participants is also hard to recreate online,” he continues. “And in-person is much better to experience the local culture and business environment first-hand.”

Joe Gollner was one of those affected students at McGill. While he acknowledges the unique elements of in-person learning, he believes a combination of the two is always going to come out on top. “It’s not an either/or scenario when we are thinking about online and in-person – it is both/and. The intentional blending of online and in-person experience wins hands-down.”

Rather than a future where we have to choose between online and in-person, it seems much more likely that barriers between the two will continue to blur. Many in-person degrees already feature some form of distance learning within the curriculum, while interest in hybrid programmes - a combination of online and in-person study - is outpacing that of 100 percent online courses.

Still, it certainly feels as if there’s plenty of untapped potential for online education providers. Butler compares the industry’s current situation to that of music streaming. "It's like creating Spotify and still forcing me to buy 12 tracks for a particular price. That's what we've kind of done with education now. We've put it in a format where we can assemble a much more interesting qualification - but we don't do that. You still have to consume it from one place."

"Now, I have to do an entire online MBA from the Open University. Why can't I instead say: the best leadership is in America, the best manufacturing is in Munich, the best finance is in London...why can I not assemble my own programme?"

Butler at Vlerick Business School also sees the future as one with a greater distinction between the different types of online programmes. In the same way that you could choose between full-time or part-time degrees, he says you should also be able to choose between different types of online degree: asynchronous or synchronous, high touch or low touch. That greater level of personalisation could bring better value for money for students.

So what now for online learning? While it’s unlikely to hit the heights of the COVID era again, programmes are continuing to improve at a rapid rate: better planned, better delivered, more affordable. It’s the only option if schools want to satisfy the demands of the modern student - one who knows their asynchronous from their synchronous.

"Your average student nowadays will let you know if they think your online practices are not good enough," says Butler. "I think there's really going to be a backlash from online students if we think that what we have done over the last year or two is good enough. We have to constantly move with the times.”