The “big four” study destinations, the US, UK, Australia and Canada, still attract large numbers of international students. But they are no longer alone. Germany, Turkey, Japan, France, the Netherlands and Argentina have gained ground, attracting more foreign scholars to their schools.

At the same time, the global picture of who needs higher education — and where — is changing. In some parts of the world, there are more young people than local universities can handle. In others, falling birth rates are leaving universities with more space than students.

Youth populations are rising sharply in countries like India and Indonesia, but shrinking in places like South Korea and much of Europe. In Nigeria, the number of 15-24-year-olds is projected to increase by about 12 million in the next decade, according to World Bank estimates, while from 2010 to 2020, China’s adolescent population dropped by some 27 million.

At the same time, immigration policy is becoming harder to predict. Canada has introduced visa caps, the UK has restricted dependents for most postgrads, and Australia is tightening work rights and raising financial thresholds while also capping foreign student numbers.

All of this raises a bigger question: where — and how — will the next generation learn?

How today’s international education sector was built

Back in 2005, international education was expanding but it was not a core pillar of the growth strategy for most schools. Recruitment was mostly through in-person fairs, printed brochures and word of mouth. Some governments, like Australia’s, were ahead of the game, but for most nations, attracting students was still more a by-product than a core economic or diplomatic strategy.

Things today are starkly different. The Bologna Process laid the foundations for a more mobile Europe, standardising degree structure and creating a credit transfer system (ECTS) in 1999 to make cross-border study easier.

At the same time, English‑taught programmes exploded. In Europe alone, offerings grew from just 725 in 2001 to more than 8,000 by 2014, according to ICEF Monitor. Globally, the number of on‑campus English-taught bachelors and masters programmes rose by 22 percent between 2021 and 2024.

And while nations like the US, UK, Canada and Australia still draw the largest crop of students, the OECD says China and India are the biggest export markets, accounting for around 30 percent of all internationally mobile scholars. That growth is powered by expanding middle classes in both nations.

To capture these candidates, many countries streamlined their visa pathways and expanded capacity, especially between 2010 and 2020. Countries like Australia and Canada started linking international education more directly to their migration and economic goals, while the UK introduced the Graduate Route in 2021 to retain talent after graduation and bolster its workforce.

In parallel, institutions started getting more strategic. Rankings gained weight in student decision-making. Some universities began setting international growth targets, investing in CRM systems and measuring performance by leads, conversions and enrolments. International offices started operating more like business units.

For Daniel Scheu, Head of Marketing at the University of Cologne’s Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences in Germany, the launch of the Bologna Process marked a turning point. “We underwent a decisive transformation: the recruitment of international students shifted from isolated initiatives within individual departments to a coordinated, faculty-wide strategy embedded within our overarching internationalisation objectives,” he recalls.

Technology caught up too. Digital recruitment was around before the pandemic but the outbreak of coronavirus in 2020 made it non-negotiable. Virtual fairs, chatbots and digital onboarding exploded in use, and many have now become standard.

“The COVID-19 pandemic was a turning point,” says Scheu. “It forced a rapid digital transformation, but also showed us what’s possible. From virtual info sessions to hybrid study formats, many of the tools we introduced during the crisis have since become permanent fixtures.”

Tech-enabled sector

What began as a loosely coordinated system to send students abroad has evolved into a strategic, data-driven operation. International offices now use CRM systems to monitor leads and conversions. Many have adopted growth goals and regional recruitment teams.

At Southern Illinois University Carbondale in the US, that shift includes a broader focus on the student journey. “Recruitment is only the first step,” says Peter Li, Director of the Center for International Education. “We’ve strengthened our efforts across the full student lifecycle.” That includes visa and mental health support and professional development, all tailored to international students.

At ESADE Business School in Spain, the approach now focuses on understanding international students’ backgrounds and helping them settle in when they arrive.

“We have developed a recruitment team specialised in understanding local talent in their areas,” says Pollyanna Nethersole, Director of International Recruitment and Admissions. “We are also incorporating cultural awareness sessions to both introduce students to Spanish cultural norms but also to facilitate their mutual engagement and understanding.”

ESADE’s approach reflects a wider shift. Structured recruitment strategies, digital tools and clear value propositions have become standard across much of the sector. The Global Student Flows report from QS backs this up: 65 percent of students now use rankings as a proxy for teaching quality, while employer reputation and graduate outcomes have overtaken “personal interest” as decision-making drivers. The message is clear: students are looking for value.

“We work closely with our career services team to ensure we can place students in global roles with companies that support visa sponsorship or offer mobility between international offices,” says Donna Ramirez Simon, Associate Director of Recruitment and Admissions at ESADE. “Ultimately, our commitment is to ensure they can thrive professionally, wherever they choose to go.”

An uncertain future

Even with strong recruitment strategies, universities still operate within limits they cannot control, such as visa policy, living costs and global politics. These external factors can shift student decisions faster than any marketing campaign.

The Global Student Flows report underscore that factors like post-study work opportunities, safety, affordability and political stability are now central to students’ decisions, alongside traditional considerations like rankings or reputation. The report draws on responses from over 70,000 students across 191 countries.

“Affordability was key,” says Rei Shabani, a current student of business administration at the University of Cologne, originally from Albania. “The low semester fee includes a public transport ticket, making quality education accessible. I was also impressed by the international opportunities, such as study-abroad options and internships, plus strong links to top companies that support career development.”

Ezgi Akgün, a Turkish student at the Technical University of Munich, echoes similar themes. “Having attended a German high school in Istanbul, Germany felt like a natural next step. And Munich, a city that had left an impression on me as beautiful, safe, green and walkable, felt like a calm and welcoming place to start this new chapter,” she says.

That mix of academic quality, life experience and long-term opportunity is what many students are looking for. And in some countries, it is getting harder to come by. The US, the top destination for international students, still has not regained the peak enrolment it saw in 2016/17; numbers remain around 2 percent below that level, according to the GSF report.

The Trump administration paused interviews for new student visas between May and June while expanding social media vetting, a move that slows down processing and raises privacy concerns. New international student enrolment could fall by up to 40 percent this year, according to NAFSA, translating to around 150,000 fewer students and billions in lost revenue.

Canada, once seen as a relatively safe alternative, is also pulling back. In 2024, it introduced a two-year cap on new study permits, cutting intake by 35 percent compared to 2023. Around 360,000 permits were issued that year. For 2025 and 2026, the cap is set at 437,000, and now includes graduate students who were previously left out.

“We now live in a more uncertain global environment,” says Matthew Ramsey, Director of University Affairs at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. “This uncertainty has an impact on the younger generation, and especially those who may consider studying outside of their home country.”

That leaves the UK in a fragile but important position. Student demand is still high, but recent policy changes have made things harder. The British government has removed the right for most postgrad students to bring dependents, raised visa fees and sent mixed messages about whether international students are still welcome.

Vivienne Stern, Chief Executive of Universities UK, tells QS Insights Magazine: “Looking ahead, the UK’s position as a top destination will be shaped by the clarity and competitiveness of our offer to international students. That is why it remains critical that the government and the sector work together to develop a stable, welcoming and joined-up policy environment, to make sure we remain a destination of choice.”

She adds: “International students bring huge benefits to high streets, workplaces and campuses across the UK. They need stability and certainty to make long-term decisions.”

So does everyone else.

The next five years

The flow of international students is shifting, not only in size, but in direction. The Global Student Flows report projects that by 2030, there will be 8.5 million international students worldwide, growing about 4 percent annually.

However, while traditional powerhouses like the US, UK, Canada and Australia still attract large numbers of foreign scholars, they are losing ground. Their combined market share is projected to drop from 40 percent to around 35 percent by 2030, as students look elsewhere.

New destinations are rising fast. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and Japan are all forecast to climb the ranks. Many institutions in these countries are expanding English-taught programmes, building international partnerships and offering degrees at a lower cost than many traditional markets.

“We see a reduction in South-North mobility and an increase in South-South mobility... Africa is the new battlefield, with students moving within the region and to Asia and the Middle East,” says Hans de Wit, a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College.

On the sending side, Vietnam, Indonesia and Nigeria are among the fastest-growing origin markets, according to the Global Student Flows report. All three have large youth populations, limited domestic capacity and rising demand for international education. According to projections, outbound flows from Nigeria could grow by around 4 percent, depending on economic stability and visa access.

China, meanwhile, is slowing. Outbound student numbers are expected to level off, in part due to economic uncertainty at home, rising political tension with key destinations and a push to strengthen local institutions.

This all plays out against three possible futures outlined in the Global Student Flows report. In “regulated regionalism”, mobility becomes more local due to geopolitical tensions; students stay closer to home, and regional education hubs thrive.

In “hybrid multiversity”, flexibility wins: students mix online study with short-term international experiences.

And in “talent race rebound”, governments compete hard for global talent, making it easier for students to stay, work and settle after graduation.

“Over the next decade, those places that will continue to provide interaction among talented individuals from different countries and cultures, in a phase in which some are tempted to isolate, will become even more crucial for the personal growth of students,” says Francesco Saita, Dean for International Affairs at Bocconi University in Italy.

The partnership wave

The next wave of student mobility will not look like the last; it will be more regional, more fragmented and driven by a different set of players.

With outbound growth from Vietnam, Indonesia and Nigeria now well-established, the focus is shifting to where those students are going, and how destinations are adapting to meet them.

On the destination side, new hubs are stepping forward. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are expanding their higher education systems with government backing, investing in English-taught programmes and hosting international branch campuses. Japan is also gaining ground as a destination, along with India and South Korea.

The Global Student Flows report notes that many students are now choosing where to study not just by country, but by city. In places like Nigeria, Indonesia and China, urban centres outside capital cities are becoming more popular, thanks to lower costs, improving infrastructure and local job markets.

Universities are responding by meeting students where they are, often outside traditional recruitment hubs. Georgetown University of the US is launching degree programmes in overseas markets.

“We have launched an executive MBA and a Master’s in International Business and Policy degree in Dubai, and are looking to launch a Master’s in Global Finance in India,” says Prashant Malaviya, Vice-Dean at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business.

At Germany’s Technical University of Munich, the strategy centres on building strong local networks around the globe. “We have increasingly focused on building sustainable partnerships with leading institutions worldwide and expanding our global presence, most notably through establishing TUM Asia in Singapore and liaison offices in key regions such as China, India, Latin America and North America,” says Deputy Spokesperson Stefan Kögler.

It points to a shift: attracting students from a distance is no longer the only play. More universities are building a presence closer to where students are.

The new trade-offs

The global mobility of students has grown markedly in the past couple of decades, becoming far more important economically and politically than ever before. If that growth was ever straightforward, today it is anything but. Shifting demographics, cost pressures, rising competition and the volatility of policymaking are all shaping student flows today.

Scholars are weighing rankings against affordability, reputation against post-study work rights, and university places against policy signals from governments. Many are choosing newer destinations or regional options that offer lower costs, more stability, or better long-term outcomes.

Governments and universities are adjusting in different ways. Some are expanding capacity and softening visa pathways; others are pulling back. Universities are building out digital recruitment, forming regional partnerships and, in some cases, delivering programmes closer to where demand is rising.

At Germany’s Mannheim Business School, that shift includes finding new ways to support mobility without adding financial or planning pressure. “In the future, we plan to offer more alternatives to semester-long exchanges, such as short programmes hosted by our partner schools worldwide,” says Yvonne Hall, Head of International Affairs.

What lies ahead will depend not only on how student flows shift, but on how universities and policymakers respond. The demand for international education remains strong. But the factors shaping where and how students move are changing. Quickly.