The Brief
Back in the USA
International students are returning to the US. What does QS' International Student Survey tell us about what's behind the push?
"[The] United States’ and its higher education institutions’ [continue their] unwavering commitment to welcoming students."
After a period of decline influenced, in part, by the COVID-19 pandemic, data from IIE's Open Doors initiative shows international students are returning en masse. According to their 2022 report, the total number of international students in the US increased by more than 30,000 in 2021/2022 to 948,519.
While total student numbers remain below the pre-pandemic peak of 1,095,299 achieved in 2018/19, the jump was the largest in six years in terms of proportion, and the largest volume increase in five years.
"The incredible rebound we have seen in international student mobility demonstrates the United States’ and its higher education institutions’ unwavering commitment to welcoming students from around the world,” IIE CEO, Allan E. Goodman said in a press release.
"The Open Doors 2022 report emphasises that, despite the complexity and uncertainty that accompany pandemics, international educational exchanges continue. Investment in international exchange remains the best way for educational institutions and countries to connect people and ideas around the world.”
Volume growth of international students studying in the US
2017
(3.4% growth)
2018
(1.5% growth)
2019
(<0.1% growth)
2022
(3.8% growth)
Goodman's observation that the increase in numbers is a reflection of the US' commitment to being welcoming is interesting. Universities and countries aspire to be friendly to international students, this aspiration doesn't always match reality; in this case, student perceptions.
The QS International Survey tracks attitudes and perceptions of international students in a number of areas, such as how much value they place on a university's reputation and their perceptions of certain destinations. To understand how the coronavirus pandemic was affecting student sentiments, the ISS began surveying students in early 2020. Over time, the survey began to ask respondents how welcoming they perceived a country to be based on their response to the pandemic.
Diving into the data, Goodman's view that the increase in student numbers was influenced by the US' ability to make students feel welcome has merit. Looking at survey responses gathered in the periods of January-February 2021 and again September-October 2021, there is a clear uplift in positivity towards the destination. The proportion of international students who said they felt the US was more welcoming almost doubled in half a year.
At the same, those who said the US was less welcoming had an even larger drop. Importantly, the proportion of respondents who felt the US was less welcoming dipped below half, from 51% to 33%.
More welcoming
Jan-Feb 2021
Sep-Oct 2021
Less welcoming
Jan-Feb 2021
Sep-Oct 2021
Within the global context, the results also show the US doing more to create a welcoming environment than others. Southern Hemisphere counterparts, Australia and New Zealand, both lost ground. Within the same survey period, the number of respondents indicating they perceived the two as more welcoming decreased. Concerningly, the proportion of respondents who said they felt the destinations had become unwelcoming increased.
The change in perception is likely due to long-term hard border closures and messaging in the both countries compared to the US. All three closed their borders at roughly the same time in March and April 2020, but the US reopened its border to vaccinated travellers in November 2021. The White House also indicated its intention to do so around the period of the September-October survey responses. Australia and New Zealand, meanwhile, didn't reopen until 2022.
The country is less welcoming
Perceptions matter
There are numerous considerations students take when choosing a study destination, ranging from those directly related to graduate and career outcomes and university reputation, through to safety, lifestyle and proximity to family and loved ones at home.
In the years immediately prior to the pandemic, 2016-2019, international student numbers in the US were plateauing. In the 2019/20 academic calendar, total student numbers declined for the first time in a decade and a half. The spread of the Northern Hemisphere's academic calendar across years (August-June), however, makes it difficult to pinpoint a dominant reason the 2019/20 drop. The majority of students commencing studies within that academic year would have done so before when borders closed March 2020.
Additionally, between the academic years 2016/17 and 2019/20, there were a series of events unfavourable to students' perceptions of the US related to politics, travel bans and other safety concerns. The pandemic and therefore border closures, however, were certainly the dominant factors accelerating downward pressure on student numbers in 2020/21.
It's worth noting, however, that between responses from Jan-Feb 2021 and Sep-Oct 2021, the US jumped from fourth welcoming to second.
Most welcoming
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
January-February
New Zealand
(36%)
Australia
(31%)
UK
(20%)
United States
(18%)
September-October
UK
(35%)
United States
(30%)
New Zealand
(27%)
Australia
(24%)
Conclusion
The student journey from initial interest to stepping foot on campus takes place over years and the impact of events usually won't be reflected in enrolment figures for some time. We will need to wait years to see if the pandemic has reset students' perceptions on how welcoming a country is and in turn whether or not there is an impact on student numbers. Between then and now, it's possible, if not likely, another event will occur that boosts or dampens how welcome international students feel in certain countries.
In the short-term, however, there is certainly a correlation between the recent increase in student numbers in the US and their perceptions of feeling welcome. Universities have limited control over external factors such as a global pandemic, but they do have control over their messaging during it. Other responses within the International Student Survey indicate prospective students want regular contact with their universities over a variety of channels. During a period of uncertainty, this is doubly so.
Getting that message right can to not only students getting ready to come on campus, but to those considering their study options, making them feel welcome, can have a significant impact on a universities' ability to recruit students.