International enrolments have been on a five year growth trajectory increasing almost 45 percent between 2016/17 and 2021/22. If the country is to sustain this growth, we look at its biggest opportunities and challenges.
Despite the impact of the pandemic, and arguably due to a rebound effect as a backlog of prospective international students clears, the UK international education sector is continuing to ride a wave of ongoing growth enrolments.
According to figures from the country's Higher Education Statistics Agency, from 2016/17 through to 2021/22, the number of international enrolments grew by an average of six percent year-on-year. In fact, likely in part influenced by the aforementioned backlog of international enrolments, the largest percentage and numbers growth took place in the recently concluded 2021/2022 period, rising 12.4 percent or 74,840.
The value of these international students is substantial. According to the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), in 2018/19 alone, when enrolments sat at 496,100, the economic contribution to the country exceeded £28 billion.
2016/17
2021/22
The power of a warm welcome
As well as a backlog of prospective students who delayed their studies in lieu of being able to join on campus, the UK's swift vaccination uptake and opening of borders to foreigners played a significant role in growth. Just as the US benefited from a boost in perceptions among international students that the country was more welcoming, the UK saw substantial positivity.
As part of the ongoing QS International Student Survey, prospective international students were asked their perceptions of how welcoming they saw countries based on how they handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Responses were gathered in January-February 2021 and again in September-October 2021. Between the two survey periods, the top two places and bottom two switched placed. The big winner was the UK, which improved by 15 percentage points to move to the number one position from third half a year earlier.
Most welcoming
January-February
New Zealand
(36%)
Australia
(31%)
UK
(20%)
United States
(18%)
September-October
UK
(35%)
United States
(30%)
New Zealand
(27%)
Australia
(24%)
New areas for growth
In May, the International Higher Education Commission (IHEC) released its interim report, International Higher Education Strategy 2.0: Targeted Growth for Resilience. In the foreword, IHEC Chair and M, Chris Skidmore, expressed concerns with the concentration of international students from particular source countries, writing:
"Shifts in global student demand for UK higher education – in terms of the sending geographies and the move from undergraduate to postgraduate recruitment – are creating serious vulnerabilities, including increasing non-completion rates, and there is a significant loss in diversity and particular threats to the research talent pipeline."
The UK recruits the highest number of its international students from China and India, representing a combined 228,375 enrolments as of 2021/22, or roughly 33.6 percent of total enrolments. For both countries, the UK faces significant competition from other destination markets, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US.
While he cited a number of concerns the boom in students numbers may be contributing to, such as non-completion rates, Skidmore also acknowledged the particular circumstances that led to the boom were also likely unsustainable in the long-term.
There are green shoots appearing in a number of emerging markets, however. Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia all saw rapid increases in first year students between 2020/21 and 2021/22. Together, the four countries contributed to further diversification in the UK international education sector, growing 32,745 between 2020/21 and 2021/2022. Nigeria was the stand out, growing by 131 percent, while Malaysia had a more modest 35 percent growth.
Growth in first year enrolments between 2020/21 and 2021/22
Nigeria
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Storm clouds on the horizon
For all the opportunities available to UK international education, there are other factors that could impact how desirable it is as a study destination. New Zealand currently provides a post study work visa for up to three years after graduation. In an effort to address skills shortages in both professions and regional areas, Australia, offers up to six years post study work rights. Bachelor Degree graduates either in one of Australia's regions, or a skills shortage area, can access four years. The UK only offers two for undergraduate and Masters, and three years for PhD.
Almost 60 percent of respondents to QS' International Student Survey indicated increasing the UK's post study work rights for undergrad and Masters by a year would positively impact their decision to study in the country.
If the UK increased the time that international students could remain in the country after they graduate from two to three years, would that change how likely you would be to consider the UK?
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
No change
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
International enrolments have been on a five year growth trajectory increasing almost 45 percent between 2016/17 and 2021/22. If the country is to sustain this growth, we look at its biggest opportunities and challenges.
Despite the impact of the pandemic, and arguably due to a rebound effect as a backlog of prospective international students clears, the UK international education sector is continuing to ride a wave of ongoing growth enrolments.
According to figures from the country's Higher Education Statistics Agency, from 2016/17 through to 2021/22, the number of international enrolments grew by an average of six percent year-on-year. In fact, likely in part influenced by the aforementioned backlog of international enrolments, the largest percentage and numbers growth took place in the recently concluded 2021/2022 period, rising 12.4 percent or 74,840.
The value of these international students is substantial. According to the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), in 2018/19 alone, when enrolments sat at 496,100, the economic contribution to the country exceeded £28 billion.
The power of a warm welcome
As well as a backlog of prospective students who delayed their studies in lieu of being able to join on campus, the UK's swift vaccination uptake and opening of borders to foreigners played a significant role in growth. Just as the US benefited from a boost in perceptions among international students that the country was more welcoming, the UK saw substantial positivity.
As part of the ongoing QS International Student Survey, prospective international students were asked their perceptions of how welcoming they saw countries based on how they handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Responses were gathered in January-February 2021 and again in September-October 2021. Between the two survey periods, the top two places and bottom two switched placed. The big winner was the UK, which improved by 15 percentage points to move to the number one position from third half a year earlier.
New areas for growth
In May, the International Higher Education Commission (IHEC) released its interim report, International Higher Education Strategy 2.0: Targeted Growth for Resilience. In the foreword, IHEC Chair and M, Chris Skidmore, expressed concerns with the concentration of international students from particular source countries, writing:
"Shifts in global student demand for UK higher education – in terms of the sending geographies and the move from undergraduate to postgraduate recruitment – are creating serious vulnerabilities, including increasing non-completion rates, and there is a significant loss in diversity and particular threats to the research talent pipeline."
The UK recruits the highest number of its international students from China and India, representing a combined 228,375 enrolments as of 2021/22, or roughly 33.6 percent of total enrolments. For both countries, the UK faces significant competition from other destination markets, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US.
While he cited a number of concerns the boom in students numbers may be contributing to, such as non-completion rates, Skidmore also acknowledged the particular circumstances that led to the boom were also likely unsustainable in the long-term.
There are green shoots appearing in a number of emerging markets, however. Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia all saw rapid increases in first year students between 2020/21 and 2021/22. Together, the four countries contributed to further diversification in the UK international education sector, growing 32,745 between 2020/21 and 2021/2022. Nigeria was the stand out, growing by 131 percent, while Malaysia had a more modest 35 percent growth.
Storm clouds on the horizon
For all the opportunities available to UK international education, there are other factors that could impact how desirable it is as a study destination. New Zealand currently provides a post study work visa for up to three years after graduation. In an effort to address skills shortages in both professions and regional areas, Australia, offers up to six years post study work rights. Bachelor Degree graduates either in one of Australia's regions, or a skills shortage area, can access four years. The UK only offers two for undergraduate and Masters, and three years for PhD.
Almost 60 percent of respondents to QS' International Student Survey indicated increasing the UK's post study work rights for undergrad and Masters by a year would positively impact their decision to study in the country.
In short
New UK immigration curbs
By Seb Murray
In May, the British government announced new immigration controls to prevent family members joining master’s students at UK universities. The curbs, starting from January 2024, will affect only students on non-research courses.
The move comes amid record-high UK immigration of 606,000 in 2022, despite previous government promises to reduce overall numbers.
International students have been a driving force behind the surge, with study visas increasing by 81 percent in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels. The new policy aims to address concerns about strain on public services caused by accompanying family members.
However, with nearly 500,000 study visas issued by UK authorities in 2022, foreign students have made substantial contributions to the financial well-being of universities, particularly in the post-Covid era.
Approximately 135,788 visas were granted to dependents in 2022, a substantial rise from 16,047 in 2019. Applications were boosted by the reintroduction of the two-year post-study work visa in 2019.
Nick Hillman, Director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), warns that the policy change could adversely affect demand from countries like India and Nigeria, which are crucial growth markets for UK universities. “It will probably lead to a reduction in the numbers; it’s a highly competitive marketplace for international students. That will be a loss to the UK,” he says.
The QS Pulse Student Survey, taken in March 2023, reveals that a quarter of international students might reconsider studying in the UK due to potential visa changes, potentially resulting in 200,000 fewer enrolments overall (undergraduate included) by 2025, costing the UK economy £10 billion annually.
To counter this, Hillman urges universities to take proactive steps to create a welcoming environment. Strategies include targeted marketing, streamlined admissions processes and collaboration with trusted recruitment agents.
“Our universities do deliver a huge amount for international students. They need to cut through the noise — and word of mouth is the best way to do that,” Hillman says.
Real/fake
By Anton John Crace
The Chief Minister for the Pakistan region of Gilgit-Baltistan, Khalid Khurshid, was disqualified earlier this month after it was discovered his law degree from the University of London was fraudulent.
The order, passed down by the Gilgit-Baltistan Chief Court, came after it was alleged Khurshid had obtained a license from the Gilgit-Baltistan Bar Council using the fake degree.
Member of the region’s assembly, Ghulam Shahzad Agha, from Pakistan People’s Party, petitioned for Khurshid’s disqualification under Articles 62 and 63 of the Pakistani Constitution.
It is expected Khurshid’s legal team will appeal the verdict, once a detailed version is released.
Fake degrees disqualifying people for jobs is not entirely uncommon. In 2020, a Singaporean man was jailed for 15 months when it was discovered he had forged certificates from universities, such as Nanyang Technological University and the National University of Singapore, to obtain well-paying jobs over a period dating back to 2009.
A year prior, a Malaysia minister also came under scrutiny online after her education history was questioned.
In the UK, also during 2019, the CEO of a hospice was stripped of his earnings and sentenced to two years in prison when it came to light that his resume included a PhD which he had not actually obtained.
The problem of fake degrees is also not confined to those who claim to hold qualifications they don’t. In January, the US Justice Department unsealed criminal conspiracy and wire fraud charges in connection to over 7,500 fake nursing diplomas from three now-defunct Florida nursing schools.
According to Forbes, the Department of Veterans Affairs also removed 89 nurses with fake degrees as part of “Operation Nightingale”.
Green pressure
By Afifah Darke
With more than 6 million students travelling internationally in 2022 alone, it's hard to ignore how international education, even with all its benefits, comes with a massive climate cost.
A new benchmarking tool by The International Education Sustainability Group has been designed to help understand and mitigate climate impact related to international student mobility.
The Climate Action Barometer for international education, or CABie, relies on institutions to submit relevant data, which will be then turned into an index of key metrics with an anonymised summary available for the public. The participating institutions will then each receive a tailored report which allows them to compare their performance against the index.
The barometer, which was founded along with seven universities in Australia and one in New Zealand, will be open to international universities from August onwards.
“There is an inevitable tension between international education as a force for good and the reality of students travelling across borders,” says IESG’s co-founder Ailsa Lamont.
“For the world to be a better place, we need students to travel to study. And for that to be sustainable, universities need to address and own the question around the inevitability of associated emissions.”
According to a 2019 QS Survey, up to 49 percent of students considered their university to be “somewhat environmentally friendly”, while 94 percent thought that universities should be doing more to be environmentally sustainable.
The QS World University Rankings: Sustainability, which was launched last year, aims to evaluate the social and environmental impact of universities as a centre of education and research, as well as a major employer with the operational costs and sustainability challenges of any large and complex organisation.